2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – All Ages | Virginia, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for individuals of all ages in Virginia

1. 82,935 of 82,935 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 26% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 65,886 of 65,886 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 17,049 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 71,777 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 26% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many individuals of all ages were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 82,935 of 8,526,761 individuals of all ages living in Virginia died from All Causes.

82,935 ÷ 8,526,761 = 0.00973 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 883,777 deaths from All Causes among 114,374,980 individuals of all ages living in Virginia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

883,777 ÷ 114,374,980 = 0.00773 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

8,526,761 X 0.00773 = 65,886 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

82,935 – 65,886 = 17,049

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

82,935 ÷ 65,886 = 1.2571

This reveals 17,049 lives lost and is 125.71% of what we expected (an increase of 26%) in deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Virginia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

506,840 ÷ 58,510,491 = 0.00866 (5-yr CDR)

8,526,761(2022 pop) X 0.00866 = 73,862 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

82,935 – 73,862 = 9,073 or 9,073 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

82,935 ÷ 73,862 = 1.1215 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Virginia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

67,037,252 X 0.00773 = 517,998 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

589775 – 517,998 = 71,777 or 71,777 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

589,775 ÷ 517,998 = 1.1371 or an increase of 14%

in deaths from All Causes among individuals of all ages living in Virginia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.