2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in California

1. 16,428 of 16,428 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 16,035 of 16,035 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 393 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,800 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 16,428 of 943,198 elderly men aged 65-69 living in California died from All Causes.

16,428 ÷ 943,198 = 0.01742 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 145,171 deaths from All Causes among 8,539,388 elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

145,171 ÷ 8,539,388 = 0.01700 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

943,198 X 0.01700 = 16,035 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

16,428 – 16,035 = 393

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

16,428 ÷ 16,035 = 1.0239

This reveals 393 lives lost and is 102.39% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

102,008 ÷ 6,129,465 = 0.01664 (5-yr CDR)

943,198(2022 pop) X 0.01664 = 15,697 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16,428 – 15,697 = 731 or 731 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

16,428 ÷ 15,697 = 1.0459 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,072,663 X 0.01700 = 120,236 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

118436 – 120,236 = -1,800 or 1,800 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

118,436 ÷ 120,236 = 0.9844 or a decrease of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.