2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 65-69 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in California

1. 27,203 of 27,203 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 27,438 of 27,438 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 235 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 11,010 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 27,203 of 1,974,129 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California died from All Causes.

27,203 ÷ 1,974,129 = 0.01378 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 253,800 deaths from All Causes among 18,260,357 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

253,800 ÷ 18,260,357 = 0.01390 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,974,129 X 0.01390 = 27,438 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

27,203 – 27,438 = -235

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

27,203 ÷ 27,438 = 0.9907

This reveals 235 lives saved and is 99.07% of what we expected (a decrease of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

170,192 ÷ 13,020,150 = 0.01307 (5-yr CDR)

1,974,129(2022 pop) X 0.01307 = 25,805 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

27,203 – 25,805 = 1,398 or 1,398 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

27,203 ÷ 25,805 = 1.0534 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

14,994,279 X 0.01390 = 208,405 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

197395 – 208,405 = -11,010 or 11,010 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

197,395 ÷ 208,405 = 0.9465 or a decrease of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.