2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 35-39 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 35-39 in California

1. 1,392 of 1,392 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 25% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,098 of 1,098 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 294 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,100 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 25% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,392 of 1,342,594 women aged 35-39 living in California died from All Causes.

1,392 ÷ 1,342,594 = 0.00104 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,085 deaths from All Causes among 19,664,625 women aged 35-39 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,085 ÷ 19,664,625 = 0.00082 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,342,594 X 0.00082 = 1,098 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,392 – 1,098 = 294

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,392 ÷ 1,098 = 1.2522

This reveals 294 lives lost and is 125.22% of what we expected (an increase of 25%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 35-39 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,488 ÷ 9,391,291 = 0.00090 (5-yr CDR)

1,342,594(2022 pop) X 0.00090 = 1,213 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,392 – 1,213 = 179 or 179 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,392 ÷ 1,213 = 1.1346 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 35-39 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,733,885 X 0.00082 = 8,780 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9880 – 8,780 = 1,100 or 1,100 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,880 ÷ 8,780 = 1.1117 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 35-39 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.