2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 35-39 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 35-39 in California

1. 4,916 of 4,916 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 48% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,294 of 3,294 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,622 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 5,887 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 48% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,916 of 2,783,889 people aged 35-39 living in California died from All Causes.

4,916 ÷ 2,783,889 = 0.00177 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 47,036 deaths from All Causes among 39,753,378 people aged 35-39 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

47,036 ÷ 39,753,378 = 0.00118 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,783,889 X 0.00118 = 3,294 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,916 – 3,294 = 1,622

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,916 ÷ 3,294 = 1.4800

This reveals 1,622 lives lost and is 148.00% of what we expected (an increase of 48%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

26,882 ÷ 19,115,613 = 0.00141 (5-yr CDR)

2,783,889(2022 pop) X 0.00141 = 3,915 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,916 – 3,915 = 1,001 or 1,001 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,916 ÷ 3,915 = 1.2468 or an increase of 25%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

21,899,502 X 0.00118 = 25,911 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

31798 – 25,911 = 5,887 or 5,887 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

31,798 ÷ 25,911 = 1.2169 or an increase of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.