2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in Illinois

1. 1,191 of 1,191 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 58% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 749 of 749 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 442 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,916 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 58% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,191 of 427,090 men aged 35-39 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

1,191 ÷ 427,090 = 0.00279 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 11,695 deaths from All Causes among 6,664,886 men aged 35-39 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

11,695 ÷ 6,664,886 = 0.00175 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

427,090 X 0.00175 = 749 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,191 – 749 = 442

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,191 ÷ 749 = 1.5802

This reveals 442 lives lost and is 158.02% of what we expected (an increase of 58%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,705 ÷ 2,980,689 = 0.00225 (5-yr CDR)

427,090(2022 pop) X 0.00225 = 961 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,191 – 961 = 230 or 230 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,191 ÷ 961 = 1.2342 or an increase of 23%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,407,779 X 0.00175 = 5,980 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7896 – 5,980 = 1,916 or 1,916 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,896 ÷ 5,980 = 1.3130 or an increase of 31%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.