2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 35-39 | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 35-39 in Illinois

1. 1,748 of 1,748 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 52% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,144 of 1,144 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 604 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,514 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 52% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,748 of 841,980 people aged 35-39 living in Illinois died from All Causes.

1,748 ÷ 841,980 = 0.00208 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,134 deaths from All Causes among 13,345,385 people aged 35-39 living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,134 ÷ 13,345,385 = 0.00136 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

841,980 X 0.00136 = 1,144 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,748 – 1,144 = 604

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,748 ÷ 1,144 = 1.5167

This reveals 604 lives lost and is 151.67% of what we expected (an increase of 52%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,991 ÷ 5,946,747 = 0.00168 (5-yr CDR)

841,980(2022 pop) X 0.00168 = 1,415 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,748 – 1,415 = 333 or 333 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,748 ÷ 1,415 = 1.2284 or an increase of 23%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,788,727 X 0.00136 = 9,225 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11739 – 9,225 = 2,514 or 2,514 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,739 ÷ 9,225 = 1.2633 or an increase of 26%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.