2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in Kentucky

1. 2,890 of 2,890 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,388 of 2,388 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 502 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,742 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,890 of 143,051 men aged 60-64 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

2,890 ÷ 143,051 = 0.02020 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 26,556 deaths from All Causes among 1,590,650 men aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

26,556 ÷ 1,590,650 = 0.01670 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

143,051 X 0.01670 = 2,388 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,890 – 2,388 = 502

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,890 ÷ 2,388 = 1.2094

This reveals 502 lives lost and is 120.94% of what we expected (an increase of 21%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,332 ÷ 963,857 = 0.01902 (5-yr CDR)

143,051(2022 pop) X 0.01902 = 2,721 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,890 – 2,721 = 169 or 169 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,890 ÷ 2,721 = 1.0617 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,106,908 X 0.01670 = 18,480 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21222 – 18,480 = 2,742 or 2,742 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21,222 ÷ 18,480 = 1.1477 or an increase of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 60-64 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.