2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 50-54 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 50-54 in Kentucky

1. 848 of 848 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 24% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 682 of 682 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 166 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,309 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 24% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 848 of 142,324 women aged 50-54 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

848 ÷ 142,324 = 0.00596 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 11,024 deaths from All Causes among 2,301,795 women aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

11,024 ÷ 2,301,795 = 0.00479 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

142,324 X 0.00479 = 682 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

848 – 682 = 166

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

848 ÷ 682 = 1.2415

This reveals 166 lives lost and is 124.15% of what we expected (an increase of 24%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,154 ÷ 1,046,421 = 0.00588 (5-yr CDR)

142,324(2022 pop) X 0.00588 = 837 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

848 – 837 = 11 or 11 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

848 ÷ 837 = 1.0114 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,188,745 X 0.00479 = 5,693 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7002 – 5,693 = 1,309 or 1,309 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,002 ÷ 5,693 = 1.2273 or an increase of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.