2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Kentucky

1. 2,243 of 2,243 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,821 of 1,821 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 422 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,982 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,243 of 286,484 people aged 50-54 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

2,243 ÷ 286,484 = 0.00783 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 28,725 deaths from All Causes among 4,518,608 people aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

28,725 ÷ 4,518,608 = 0.00636 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

286,484 X 0.00636 = 1,821 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,243 – 1,821 = 422

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,243 ÷ 1,821 = 1.2297

This reveals 422 lives lost and is 122.97% of what we expected (an increase of 23%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

15,676 ÷ 2,063,262 = 0.00760 (5-yr CDR)

286,484(2022 pop) X 0.00760 = 2,177 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,243 – 2,177 = 66 or 66 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,243 ÷ 2,177 = 1.0291 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,349,746 X 0.00636 = 14,937 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17919 – 14,937 = 2,982 or 2,982 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

17,919 ÷ 14,937 = 1.1977 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.