2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 65-69 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 65-69 in Kentucky

1. 2,543 of 2,543 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,288 of 2,288 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 255 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 194 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,543 of 137,665 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

2,543 ÷ 137,665 = 0.01847 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 22,989 deaths from All Causes among 1,383,240 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

22,989 ÷ 1,383,240 = 0.01662 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

137,665 X 0.01662 = 2,288 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,543 – 2,288 = 255

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,543 ÷ 2,288 = 1.1108

This reveals 255 lives lost and is 111.08% of what we expected (an increase of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

15,075 ÷ 910,760 = 0.01655 (5-yr CDR)

137,665(2022 pop) X 0.01655 = 2,279 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,543 – 2,279 = 264 or 264 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,543 ÷ 2,279 = 1.1153 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,048,425 X 0.01662 = 17,424 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17618 – 17,424 = 194 or 194 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

17,618 ÷ 17,424 = 1.0105 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.