2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 65-69 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Ontario

1. 345 of 5,526 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 6.24% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 378% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 68 of 6,602 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 277 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,076 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 627 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 8,026 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 378% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 345 of 408,422 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

345 ÷ 408,422 = 0.00084 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 616 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,690,809 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

616 ÷ 3,690,809 = 0.00017 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

408,422 X 0.00017 = 68 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

345 – 68 = 277

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

345 ÷ 68 = 4.7751

This reveals 277 lives lost and is 477.51% of what we expected (an increase of 378%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

778 ÷ 2,564,792 = 0.00030 (5-yr CDR)

408,422(2022 pop) X 0.00030 = 124 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

345 – 124 = 221 or 221 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

345 ÷ 124 = 2.6959 or an increase of 170%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,973,214 X 0.00017 = 496 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1123 – 496 = 627 or 627 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,123 ÷ 496 = 2.1351 or an increase of 114%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.