2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 75-79 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Ontario

1. 304 of 7,737 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.93% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 147% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 121 of 10,495 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 183 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,758 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 343 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 16,389 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 147% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 304 of 241,500 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

304 ÷ 241,500 = 0.00126 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,129 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,260,794 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,129 ÷ 2,260,794 = 0.00050 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

241,500 X 0.00050 = 121 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

304 – 121 = 183

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

304 ÷ 121 = 2.4712

This reveals 183 lives lost and is 247.12% of what we expected (an increase of 147%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

846 ÷ 1,374,834 = 0.00062 (5-yr CDR)

241,500(2022 pop) X 0.00062 = 149 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

304 – 149 = 155 or 155 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

304 ÷ 149 = 2.0130 or an increase of 101%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,616,334 X 0.00050 = 807 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1150 – 807 = 343 or 343 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,150 ÷ 807 = 1.3968 or an increase of 40%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.