2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 60-64 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 60-64 in New York

1. 4,839 of 4,839 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,037 of 5,037 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 198 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,827 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,839 of 669,932 women aged 60-64 living in New York died from All Causes.

4,839 ÷ 669,932 = 0.00722 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 57,103 deaths from All Causes among 7,595,167 women aged 60-64 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

57,103 ÷ 7,595,167 = 0.00752 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

669,932 X 0.00752 = 5,037 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,839 – 5,037 = -198

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,839 ÷ 5,037 = 0.9595

This reveals 198 lives saved and is 95.95% of what we expected (a decrease of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

31,389 ÷ 4,524,731 = 0.00694 (5-yr CDR)

669,932(2022 pop) X 0.00694 = 4,647 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,839 – 4,647 = 192 or 192 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,839 ÷ 4,647 = 1.0397 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,194,663 X 0.00752 = 39,055 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

36228 – 39,055 = -2,827 or 2,827 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

36,228 ÷ 39,055 = 0.9264 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 60-64 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.