2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Texas

1. 2,380 of 2,380 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 44% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,641 of 1,641 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 739 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,066 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 44% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,380 of 1,122,445 men aged 30-34 living in Texas died from All Causes.

2,380 ÷ 1,122,445 = 0.00212 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,036 deaths from All Causes among 13,017,569 men aged 30-34 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,036 ÷ 13,017,569 = 0.00146 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,122,445 X 0.00146 = 1,641 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,380 – 1,641 = 739

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,380 ÷ 1,641 = 1.4401

This reveals 739 lives lost and is 144.01% of what we expected (an increase of 44%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

13,097 ÷ 7,364,697 = 0.00178 (5-yr CDR)

1,122,445(2022 pop) X 0.00178 = 1,996 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,380 – 1,996 = 384 or 384 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,380 ÷ 1,996 = 1.1857 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,487,142 X 0.00146 = 12,411 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15477 – 12,411 = 3,066 or 3,066 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

15,477 ÷ 12,411 = 1.2386 or an increase of 24%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.