2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 30-34 in Texas

1. 3,370 of 3,370 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 38% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,425 of 2,425 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 945 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,117 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 38% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,370 of 2,203,467 people aged 30-34 living in Texas died from All Causes.

3,370 ÷ 2,203,467 = 0.00153 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 28,449 deaths from All Causes among 25,846,324 people aged 30-34 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

28,449 ÷ 25,846,324 = 0.00110 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,203,467 X 0.00110 = 2,425 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,370 – 2,425 = 945

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,370 ÷ 2,425 = 1.3770

This reveals 945 lives lost and is 137.70% of what we expected (an increase of 38%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

19,167 ÷ 14,531,692 = 0.00132 (5-yr CDR)

2,203,467(2022 pop) X 0.00132 = 2,906 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,370 – 2,906 = 464 or 464 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,370 ÷ 2,906 = 1.1508 or an increase of 15%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,735,159 X 0.00110 = 18,420 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

22537 – 18,420 = 4,117 or 4,117 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

22,537 ÷ 18,420 = 1.2125 or an increase of 21%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 30-34 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.