2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Texas

1. 3,294 of 3,294 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,899 of 2,899 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 395 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 435 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,294 of 1,044,357 men aged 40-44 living in Texas died from All Causes.

3,294 ÷ 1,044,357 = 0.00315 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 35,682 deaths from All Causes among 12,852,456 men aged 40-44 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

35,682 ÷ 12,852,456 = 0.00278 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,044,357 X 0.00278 = 2,899 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,294 – 2,899 = 395

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,294 ÷ 2,899 = 1.1320

This reveals 395 lives lost and is 113.20% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,239 ÷ 6,554,856 = 0.00278 (5-yr CDR)

1,044,357(2022 pop) X 0.00278 = 2,906 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,294 – 2,906 = 388 or 388 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,294 ÷ 2,906 = 1.1295 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,599,213 X 0.00278 = 21,098 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21533 – 21,098 = 435 or 435 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21,533 ÷ 21,098 = 1.0170 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.