2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in Texas

1. 5,168 of 5,168 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,551 of 4,551 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 617 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 633 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,168 of 2,052,394 people aged 40-44 living in Texas died from All Causes.

5,168 ÷ 2,052,394 = 0.00252 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 57,093 deaths from All Causes among 25,748,553 people aged 40-44 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

57,093 ÷ 25,748,553 = 0.00222 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,052,394 X 0.00222 = 4,551 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,168 – 4,551 = 617

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,168 ÷ 4,551 = 1.1305

This reveals 617 lives lost and is 113.05% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

29,110 ÷ 13,121,122 = 0.00222 (5-yr CDR)

2,052,394(2022 pop) X 0.00222 = 4,553 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,168 – 4,553 = 615 or 615 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,168 ÷ 4,553 = 1.1299 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

15,173,516 X 0.00222 = 33,645 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

34278 – 33,645 = 633 or 633 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

34,278 ÷ 33,645 = 1.0142 or an increase of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.