2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 50-54 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Washington

1. 1,436 of 1,436 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,269 of 1,269 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 167 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 176 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,436 of 242,611 men aged 50-54 living in Washington died from All Causes.

1,436 ÷ 242,611 = 0.00592 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,060 deaths from All Causes among 3,453,971 men aged 50-54 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,060 ÷ 3,453,971 = 0.00523 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

242,611 X 0.00523 = 1,269 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,436 – 1,269 = 167

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,436 ÷ 1,269 = 1.1298

This reveals 167 lives lost and is 112.98% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,612 ÷ 1,645,401 = 0.00523 (5-yr CDR)

242,611(2022 pop) X 0.00523 = 1,270 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,436 – 1,270 = 166 or 166 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,436 ÷ 1,270 = 1.1287 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,888,012 X 0.00523 = 9,872 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10048 – 9,872 = 176 or 176 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,048 ÷ 9,872 = 1.0159 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.