2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Washington

1. 2,276 of 2,276 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,002 of 2,002 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 274 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 552 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,276 of 473,351 people aged 50-54 living in Washington died from All Causes.

2,276 ÷ 473,351 = 0.00481 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 29,462 deaths from All Causes among 6,965,655 people aged 50-54 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

29,462 ÷ 6,965,655 = 0.00423 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

473,351 X 0.00423 = 2,002 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,276 – 2,002 = 274

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,276 ÷ 2,002 = 1.1341

This reveals 274 lives lost and is 113.41% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

14,160 ÷ 3,281,961 = 0.00431 (5-yr CDR)

473,351(2022 pop) X 0.00431 = 2,042 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,276 – 2,042 = 234 or 234 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,276 ÷ 2,042 = 1.1119 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,755,312 X 0.00423 = 15,884 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16436 – 15,884 = 552 or 552 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

16,436 ÷ 15,884 = 1.0323 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.