2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 15-19 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged boys aged 15-19 in California

1. 295 of 812 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 36.33% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 365 of 928 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 70 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 116 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 414 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,122 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged boys aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 295 of 1,313,206 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

295 ÷ 1,313,206 = 0.00022 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,764 deaths from Unknown Causes among 20,712,403 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,764 ÷ 20,712,403 = 0.00028 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,313,206 X 0.00028 = 365 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

295 – 365 = -70

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

295 ÷ 365 = 0.7792

This reveals 70 lives saved and is 77.92% of what we expected (a decrease of 22%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,201 ÷ 9,144,733 = 0.00024 (5-yr CDR)

1,313,206(2022 pop) X 0.00024 = 316 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

295 – 316 = -21 or 21 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

295 ÷ 316 = 0.8961 or a decrease of 10%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,457,939 X 0.00028 = 2,910 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2496 – 2,910 = -414 or 414 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,496 ÷ 2,910 = 0.8279 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.