2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Girls – Ages 10-14 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for girls aged 10-14 in California

1. 123 of 134 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 91.78% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 140 of 143 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 17 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 9 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 189 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 164 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many girls aged 10-14 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 123 of 1,205,949 girls aged 10-14 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

123 ÷ 1,205,949 = 0.00010 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,248 deaths from Unknown Causes among 19,410,632 girls aged 10-14 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,248 ÷ 19,410,632 = 0.00012 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,205,949 X 0.00012 = 140 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

123 – 140 = -17

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

123 ÷ 140 = 0.8107

This reveals 17 lives saved and is 81.07% of what we expected (a decrease of 19%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 10-14 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

833 ÷ 8,677,921 = 0.00010 (5-yr CDR)

1,205,949(2022 pop) X 0.00010 = 116 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

123 – 116 = 7 or 7 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

123 ÷ 116 = 0.9623 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 10-14 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,883,870 X 0.00012 = 1,145 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

956 – 1,145 = -189 or 189 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

956 ÷ 1,145 = 0.7688 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 10-14 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.