2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Texas

1. 719 of 2,380 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 30.21% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 854 of 1,641 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 135 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 739 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 801 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3,066 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 719 of 1,122,445 men aged 30-34 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

719 ÷ 1,122,445 = 0.00064 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,907 deaths from Unknown Causes among 13,017,569 men aged 30-34 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,907 ÷ 13,017,569 = 0.00076 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,122,445 X 0.00076 = 854 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

719 – 854 = -135

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

719 ÷ 854 = 0.8308

This reveals 135 lives saved and is 83.08% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,939 ÷ 7,364,697 = 0.00067 (5-yr CDR)

1,122,445(2022 pop) X 0.00067 = 753 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

719 – 753 = -34 or 34 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

719 ÷ 753 = 0.9411 or a decrease of 6%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,487,142 X 0.00076 = 6,459 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5658 – 6,459 = -801 or 801 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,658 ÷ 6,459 = 0.8646 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.