2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Kentucky

1. 1,519 of 1,519 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 30% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,162 of 1,162 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 357 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,867 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 30% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,519 of 268,320 people aged 45-49 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

1,519 ÷ 268,320 = 0.00566 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 20,308 deaths from All Causes among 4,688,891 people aged 45-49 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

20,308 ÷ 4,688,891 = 0.00433 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

268,320 X 0.00433 = 1,162 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,519 – 1,162 = 357

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,519 ÷ 1,162 = 1.3041

This reveals 357 lives lost and is 130.41% of what we expected (an increase of 30%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,078 ÷ 1,978,116 = 0.00509 (5-yr CDR)

268,320(2022 pop) X 0.00509 = 1,367 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,519 – 1,367 = 152 or 152 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,519 ÷ 1,367 = 1.1090 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,246,436 X 0.00433 = 9,730 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11597 – 9,730 = 1,867 or 1,867 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,597 ÷ 9,730 = 1.1892 or an increase of 19%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.