2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 25-29 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 25-29 in Alberta

1. 392 of 392 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 96% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 197 of 197 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 195 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 939 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 96% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 25-29 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 392 of 307,763 people aged 25-29 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

392 ÷ 307,763 = 0.00127 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,551 deaths from All Causes among 3,978,199 people aged 25-29 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,551 ÷ 3,978,199 = 0.00064 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

307,763 X 0.00064 = 197 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

392 – 197 = 195

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

392 ÷ 197 = 1.9558

This reveals 195 lives lost and is 195.58% of what we expected (an increase of 96%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,200 ÷ 2,269,923 = 0.00097 (5-yr CDR)

307,763(2022 pop) X 0.00097 = 298 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

392 – 298 = 94 or 94 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

392 ÷ 298 = 1.3008 or an increase of 30%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,577,686 X 0.00064 = 1,653 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2592 – 1,653 = 939 or 939 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,592 ÷ 1,653 = 1.5440 or an increase of 54%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 25-29 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.