2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 35-39 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 35-39 in Alberta

1. 644 of 644 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 75% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 365 of 365 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 279 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 884 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 75% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 644 of 369,891 people aged 35-39 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

644 ÷ 369,891 = 0.00174 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,679 deaths from All Causes among 3,733,261 people aged 35-39 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,679 ÷ 3,733,261 = 0.00099 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

369,891 X 0.00099 = 365 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

644 – 365 = 279

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

644 ÷ 365 = 1.7490

This reveals 279 lives lost and is 174.90% of what we expected (an increase of 75%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,955 ÷ 2,384,662 = 0.00124 (5-yr CDR)

369,891(2022 pop) X 0.00124 = 458 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

644 – 458 = 186 or 186 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

644 ÷ 458 = 1.3938 or an increase of 39%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,754,553 X 0.00099 = 2,715 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3599 – 2,715 = 884 or 884 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,599 ÷ 2,715 = 1.3125 or an increase of 31%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.