2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 40-44 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in Alberta

1. 665 of 665 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 36% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 487 of 487 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 178 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 404 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 36% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 665 of 340,630 people aged 40-44 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

665 ÷ 340,630 = 0.00195 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,515 deaths from All Causes among 3,860,326 people aged 40-44 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,515 ÷ 3,860,326 = 0.00143 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

340,630 X 0.00143 = 487 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

665 – 487 = 178

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

665 ÷ 487 = 1.3570

This reveals 178 lives lost and is 135.70% of what we expected (an increase of 36%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,277 ÷ 2,135,894 = 0.00153 (5-yr CDR)

340,630(2022 pop) X 0.00153 = 523 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

665 – 523 = 142 or 142 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

665 ÷ 523 = 1.2642 or an increase of 26%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,476,524 X 0.00143 = 3,538 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3942 – 3,538 = 404 or 404 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,942 ÷ 3,538 = 1.1064 or an increase of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.