2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 45-49 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Alberta

1. 765 of 765 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 658 of 658 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 107 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 7 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 765 of 298,702 people aged 45-49 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

765 ÷ 298,702 = 0.00256 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,518 deaths from All Causes among 3,867,492 people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,518 ÷ 3,867,492 = 0.00220 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

298,702 X 0.00220 = 658 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

765 – 658 = 107

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

765 ÷ 658 = 1.1576

This reveals 107 lives lost and is 115.76% of what we expected (an increase of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,240 ÷ 1,970,618 = 0.00215 (5-yr CDR)

298,702(2022 pop) X 0.00215 = 643 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

765 – 643 = 122 or 122 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

765 ÷ 643 = 1.1848 or an increase of 18%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,269,320 X 0.00220 = 4,998 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5005 – 4,998 = 7 or 7 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,005 ÷ 4,998 = 0.9969 or a decrease of 0%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.