2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 60-64 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 60-64 in Alberta

1. 2,300 of 2,300 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,175 of 2,175 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 125 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 760 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,300 of 273,346 people aged 60-64 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

2,300 ÷ 273,346 = 0.00841 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,091 deaths from All Causes among 2,148,420 people aged 60-64 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,091 ÷ 2,148,420 = 0.00796 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

273,346 X 0.00796 = 2,175 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,300 – 2,175 = 125

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,300 ÷ 2,175 = 1.0564

This reveals 125 lives lost and is 105.64% of what we expected (an increase of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,860 ÷ 1,727,854 = 0.00744 (5-yr CDR)

273,346(2022 pop) X 0.00744 = 2,034 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,300 – 2,034 = 266 or 266 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,300 ÷ 2,034 = 1.1290 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,001,200 X 0.00796 = 15,920 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15160 – 15,920 = -760 or 760 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

15,160 ÷ 15,920 = 0.9511 or a decrease of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 60-64 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.