2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 20-24 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 20-24 in Alberta

1. 167 of 167 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 142 of 142 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 25 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 69 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 167 of 145,314 men aged 20-24 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

167 ÷ 145,314 = 0.00115 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,912 deaths from All Causes among 1,950,497 men aged 20-24 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,912 ÷ 1,950,497 = 0.00098 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

145,314 X 0.00098 = 142 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

167 – 142 = 25

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

167 ÷ 142 = 1.1605

This reveals 25 lives lost and is 116.05% of what we expected (an increase of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,034 ÷ 1,009,464 = 0.00102 (5-yr CDR)

145,314(2022 pop) X 0.00102 = 149 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

167 – 149 = 18 or 18 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

167 ÷ 149 = 1.1111 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,154,778 X 0.00098 = 1,132 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1201 – 1,132 = 69 or 69 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,201 ÷ 1,132 = 1.0503 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.