2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 30-34 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Alberta

1. 348 of 348 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 105% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 168 of 168 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 180 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 901 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 105% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 348 of 180,344 men aged 30-34 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

348 ÷ 180,344 = 0.00193 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,845 deaths from All Causes among 1,978,275 men aged 30-34 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,845 ÷ 1,978,275 = 0.00093 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

180,344 X 0.00093 = 168 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

348 – 168 = 180

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

348 ÷ 168 = 2.0471

This reveals 180 lives lost and is 204.71% of what we expected (an increase of 105%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,898 ÷ 1,261,486 = 0.00150 (5-yr CDR)

180,344(2022 pop) X 0.00150 = 271 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

348 – 271 = 77 or 77 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

348 ÷ 271 = 1.2741 or an increase of 27%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,441,830 X 0.00093 = 1,345 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2246 – 1,345 = 901 or 901 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,246 ÷ 1,345 = 1.6525 or an increase of 65%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.