2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 35-39 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in Alberta

1. 438 of 438 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 90% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 228 of 228 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 210 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 777 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 90% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 438 of 187,600 men aged 35-39 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

438 ÷ 187,600 = 0.00233 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,342 deaths from All Causes among 1,923,099 men aged 35-39 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,342 ÷ 1,923,099 = 0.00122 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

187,600 X 0.00122 = 228 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

438 – 228 = 210

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

438 ÷ 228 = 1.9015

This reveals 210 lives lost and is 190.15% of what we expected (an increase of 90%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,033 ÷ 1,203,047 = 0.00169 (5-yr CDR)

187,600(2022 pop) X 0.00169 = 317 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

438 – 317 = 121 or 121 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

438 ÷ 317 = 1.3735 or an increase of 37%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,390,647 X 0.00122 = 1,694 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2471 – 1,694 = 777 or 777 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,471 ÷ 1,694 = 1.4472 or an increase of 45%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.