2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 80-84 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80-84 in Alberta

1. 2,094 of 2,094 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,348 of 2,348 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 254 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,131 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,094 of 33,354 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

2,094 ÷ 33,354 = 0.06278 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 21,204 deaths from All Causes among 301,259 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

21,204 ÷ 301,259 = 0.07038 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

33,354 X 0.07038 = 2,348 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,094 – 2,348 = -254

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,094 ÷ 2,348 = 0.8918

This reveals 254 lives saved and is 89.18% of what we expected (a decrease of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,370 ÷ 202,427 = 0.06111 (5-yr CDR)

33,354(2022 pop) X 0.06111 = 2,038 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,094 – 2,038 = 56 or 56 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,094 ÷ 2,038 = 1.0272 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

235,781 X 0.07038 = 16,595 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14464 – 16,595 = -2,131 or 2,131 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,464 ÷ 16,595 = 0.8714 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.