2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Girls – Ages 10-14 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for girls aged 10-14 in Alberta

1. 5 of 24 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 20.82% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 146% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1 of 17 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 4 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 7 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 12 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Alberta’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 146% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many girls aged 10-14 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5 of 140,013 girls aged 10-14 living in Alberta died from Unknown Causes.

5 ÷ 140,013 = 0.00004 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,546,049 girls aged 10-14 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7 ÷ 1,546,049 = 0.00000 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

140,013 X 0.00000 = 1 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5 – 1 = 4

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5 ÷ 1 = 2.4581

This reveals 4 lives lost and is 245.81% of what we expected (an increase of 146%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 10-14 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12 ÷ 891,067 = 0.00001 (5-yr CDR)

140,013(2022 pop) X 0.00001 = 2 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5 – 2 = 3 or 3 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5 ÷ 2 = 1.5218 or an increase of 52%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 10-14 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,031,080 X 0.00000 = 5 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17 – 5 = 12 or 12 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

17 ÷ 5 = 1.1349 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 10-14 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.