2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 85+ | British Columbia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85+ in British Columbia

1. 11,015 of 11,015 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 9,952 of 9,952 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,063 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 313 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 11,015 of 107,086 elderly men aged 85+ living in British Columbia died from All Causes.

11,015 ÷ 107,086 = 0.10286 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 90,146 deaths from All Causes among 970,030 elderly men aged 85+ living in British Columbia in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

90,146 ÷ 970,030 = 0.09293 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

107,086 X 0.09293 = 9,952 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

11,015 – 9,952 = 1,063

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

11,015 ÷ 9,952 = 1.1067

This reveals 1,063 lives lost and is 110.67% of what we expected (an increase of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

60,895 ÷ 663,342 = 0.09180 (5-yr CDR)

107,086(2022 pop) X 0.09180 = 9,831 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11,015 – 9,831 = 1,184 or 1,184 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

11,015 ÷ 9,831 = 1.1204 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85+ living in British Columbia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

770,428 X 0.09293 = 71,597 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

71910 – 71,597 = 313 or 313 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

71,910 ÷ 71,597 = 1.0043 or an increase of 0%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 85+ living in British Columbia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.