2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 50-54 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 50-54 in Canada

1. 2,830 of 2,830 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,197 of 3,197 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 367 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,991 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,830 of 1,221,277 women aged 50-54 living in Canada died from All Causes.

2,830 ÷ 1,221,277 = 0.00232 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 48,008 deaths from All Causes among 18,337,467 women aged 50-54 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

48,008 ÷ 18,337,467 = 0.00262 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,221,277 X 0.00262 = 3,197 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,830 – 3,197 = -367

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,830 ÷ 3,197 = 0.8817

This reveals 367 lives saved and is 88.17% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

21,196 ÷ 9,098,249 = 0.00233 (5-yr CDR)

1,221,277(2022 pop) X 0.00233 = 2,845 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,830 – 2,845 = -15 or 15 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,830 ÷ 2,845 = 0.9904 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,319,526 X 0.00262 = 27,017 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24026 – 27,017 = -2,991 or 2,991 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

24,026 ÷ 27,017 = 0.8859 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.