2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Canada

1. 2,670 of 2,670 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 26% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,100 of 2,100 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 570 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,073 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 26% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,670 of 1,278,613 men aged 40-44 living in Canada died from All Causes.

2,670 ÷ 1,278,613 = 0.00209 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,723 deaths from All Causes among 19,311,205 men aged 40-44 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,723 ÷ 19,311,205 = 0.00164 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,278,613 X 0.00164 = 2,100 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,670 – 2,100 = 570

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,670 ÷ 2,100 = 1.2635

This reveals 570 lives lost and is 126.35% of what we expected (an increase of 26%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

14,189 ÷ 8,330,912 = 0.00170 (5-yr CDR)

1,278,613(2022 pop) X 0.00170 = 2,178 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,670 – 2,178 = 492 or 492 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,670 ÷ 2,178 = 1.2189 or an increase of 22%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,609,525 X 0.00164 = 15,786 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16859 – 15,786 = 1,073 or 1,073 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

16,859 ÷ 15,786 = 1.0615 or an increase of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.