2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 50-54 | Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Canada

1. 4,763 of 4,763 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,866 of 4,866 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 103 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,321 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,763 of 1,202,350 men aged 50-54 living in Canada died from All Causes.

4,763 ÷ 1,202,350 = 0.00396 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 73,863 deaths from All Causes among 18,251,947 men aged 50-54 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

73,863 ÷ 18,251,947 = 0.00405 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,202,350 X 0.00405 = 4,866 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,763 – 4,866 = -103

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,763 ÷ 4,866 = 0.9765

This reveals 103 lives saved and is 97.65% of what we expected (a decrease of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

33,402 ÷ 9,049,164 = 0.00369 (5-yr CDR)

1,202,350(2022 pop) X 0.00369 = 4,438 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,763 – 4,438 = 325 or 325 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,763 ÷ 4,438 = 1.0703 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Canada in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,251,514 X 0.00405 = 41,486 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

38165 – 41,486 = -3,321 or 3,321 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

38,165 ÷ 41,486 = 0.9177 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.