2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 15-19 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged boys aged 15-19 in Canada

1. 523 of 523 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 20% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 640 of 640 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 117 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 997 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 20% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged boys aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 523 of 1,151,648 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Canada died from All Causes.

523 ÷ 1,151,648 = 0.00045 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,334 deaths from All Causes among 16,793,056 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,334 ÷ 16,793,056 = 0.00056 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,151,648 X 0.00056 = 640 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

523 – 640 = -117

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

523 ÷ 640 = 0.8026

This reveals 117 lives saved and is 80.26% of what we expected (a decrease of 20%) in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,902 ÷ 8,602,988 = 0.00045 (5-yr CDR)

1,151,648(2023 pop) X 0.00045 = 522 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

523 – 522 = 1 or 1 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

523 ÷ 522 = 0.9797 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,754,636 X 0.00056 = 5,422 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4425 – 5,422 = -997 or 997 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,425 ÷ 5,422 = 0.8017 or a decrease of 20%

in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.