2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Canada

1. 2,109 of 2,109 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 56% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,339 of 1,339 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 770 excess deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 4,043 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 56% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 2,109 of 1,525,198 men aged 30-34 living in Canada died from All Causes.

2,109 ÷ 1,525,198 = 0.00138 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 14,961 deaths from All Causes among 17,037,061 men aged 30-34 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

14,961 ÷ 17,037,061 = 0.00088 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,525,198 X 0.00088 = 1,339 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,109 – 1,339 = 770

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,109 ÷ 1,339 = 1.5569

This reveals 770 lives lost and is 155.69% of what we expected (an increase of 56%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,487 ÷ 10,491,711 = 0.00119 (5-yr CDR)

1,525,198(2023 pop) X 0.00119 = 1,815 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,109 – 1,815 = 294 or 294 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,109 ÷ 1,815 = 1.1521 or an increase of 15%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

12,016,909 X 0.00088 = 10,553 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14596 – 10,553 = 4,043 or 4,043 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,596 ÷ 10,553 = 1.3676 or an increase of 37%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.