2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in Canada

1. 2,495 of 2,495 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 52% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,627 of 1,627 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 868 excess deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 3,422 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 52% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 2,495 of 1,423,358 men aged 35-39 living in Canada died from All Causes.

2,495 ÷ 1,423,358 = 0.00175 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 20,601 deaths from All Causes among 18,017,622 men aged 35-39 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

20,601 ÷ 18,017,622 = 0.00114 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,423,358 X 0.00114 = 1,627 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,495 – 1,627 = 868

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,495 ÷ 1,627 = 1.5198

This reveals 868 lives lost and is 151.98% of what we expected (an increase of 52%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

14,160 ÷ 10,150,337 = 0.00140 (5-yr CDR)

1,423,358(2023 pop) X 0.00140 = 1,986 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,495 – 1,986 = 509 or 509 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,495 ÷ 1,986 = 1.2476 or an increase of 25%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,573,695 X 0.00114 = 13,233 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16655 – 13,233 = 3,422 or 3,422 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

16,655 ÷ 13,233 = 1.2477 or an increase of 25%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.