2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Canada

1. 2,787 of 2,787 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 25% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,209 of 2,209 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 578 excess deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 1,651 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 25% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 2,787 of 1,344,985 men aged 40-44 living in Canada died from All Causes.

2,787 ÷ 1,344,985 = 0.00207 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,723 deaths from All Causes among 19,311,205 men aged 40-44 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,723 ÷ 19,311,205 = 0.00164 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,344,985 X 0.00164 = 2,209 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,787 – 2,209 = 578

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,787 ÷ 2,209 = 1.2538

This reveals 578 lives lost and is 125.38% of what we expected (an increase of 25%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

16,859 ÷ 9,609,525 = 0.00175 (5-yr CDR)

1,344,985(2023 pop) X 0.00175 = 2,360 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,787 – 2,360 = 427 or 427 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,787 ÷ 2,360 = 1.1744 or an increase of 17%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,954,510 X 0.00164 = 17,995 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

19646 – 17,995 = 1,651 or 1,651 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

19,646 ÷ 17,995 = 1.0851 or an increase of 9%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.