2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Canada

1. 3,224 of 3,224 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,123 of 3,123 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 101 excess deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 982 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 3,224 of 1,223,356 men aged 45-49 living in Canada died from All Causes.

3,224 ÷ 1,223,356 = 0.00264 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 49,875 deaths from All Causes among 19,539,220 men aged 45-49 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

49,875 ÷ 19,539,220 = 0.00255 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,223,356 X 0.00255 = 3,123 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,224 – 3,123 = 101

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,224 ÷ 3,123 = 1.0284

This reveals 101 lives lost and is 102.84% of what we expected (an increase of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

23,362 ÷ 9,576,663 = 0.00244 (5-yr CDR)

1,223,356(2023 pop) X 0.00244 = 2,984 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,224 – 2,984 = 240 or 240 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,224 ÷ 2,984 = 1.0759 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,800,019 X 0.00255 = 27,568 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

26586 – 27,568 = -982 or 982 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

26,586 ÷ 27,568 = 0.9606 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.