2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Canada

1. 15,820 of 15,820 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 18,757 of 18,757 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,937 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 21,808 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 15,820 of 1,155,219 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Canada died from All Causes.

15,820 ÷ 1,155,219 = 0.01369 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 160,318 deaths from All Causes among 9,873,969 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

160,318 ÷ 9,873,969 = 0.01624 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,155,219 X 0.01624 = 18,757 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

15,820 – 18,757 = -2,937

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

15,820 ÷ 18,757 = 0.8429

This reveals 2,937 lives saved and is 84.29% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

112,813 ÷ 8,110,446 = 0.01391 (5-yr CDR)

1,155,219(2023 pop) X 0.01391 = 16,069 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15,820 – 16,069 = -249 or 249 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

15,820 ÷ 16,069 = 0.9838 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,265,665 X 0.01624 = 150,441 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

128633 – 150,441 = -21,808 or 21,808 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

128,633 ÷ 150,441 = 0.8545 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.