2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 80-84 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80-84 in Canada

1. 23,912 of 23,912 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 20% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 30,061 of 30,061 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 6,149 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 40,502 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 20% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 23,912 of 410,284 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada died from All Causes.

23,912 ÷ 410,284 = 0.05828 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 280,275 deaths from All Causes among 3,825,324 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

280,275 ÷ 3,825,324 = 0.07327 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

410,284 X 0.07327 = 30,061 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

23,912 – 30,061 = -6,149

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

23,912 ÷ 30,061 = 0.7953

This reveals 6,149 lives saved and is 79.53% of what we expected (a decrease of 20%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

169,439 ÷ 2,781,450 = 0.06092 (5-yr CDR)

410,284(2023 pop) X 0.06092 = 24,993 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

23,912 – 24,993 = -1,081 or 1,081 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

23,912 ÷ 24,993 = 0.9566 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,191,734 X 0.07327 = 233,853 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

193351 – 233,853 = -40,502 or 40,502 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

193,351 ÷ 233,853 = 0.8267 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.