2023 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 90+ | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Canada

1. 24,847 of 24,847 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 26,379 of 26,379 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,532 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2023.
6. 9,058 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2023)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 24,847 of 113,516 elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada died from All Causes.

24,847 ÷ 113,516 = 0.21889 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 169,806 deaths from All Causes among 730,725 elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

169,806 ÷ 730,725 = 0.23238 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

113,516 X 0.23238 = 26,379 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

24,847 – 26,379 = -1,532

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

24,847 ÷ 26,379 = 0.9419

This reveals 1,532 lives saved and is 94.19% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

167,618 ÷ 753,697 = 0.22239 (5-yr CDR)

113,516(2023 pop) X 0.22239 = 25,245 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24,847 – 25,245 = -398 or 398 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

24,847 ÷ 25,245 = 0.9842 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

867,213 X 0.23238 = 201,523 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

192465 – 201,523 = -9,058 or 9,058 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

192,465 ÷ 201,523 = 0.9550 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.