2023 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Canada

1. 671 of 5,141 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 13.05% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 290% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 148 of 5,182 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 523 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2023.
6. 41 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2023.
7. 2,344 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2023)
8. 3,228 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 9 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 290% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 671 of 2,456,827 people aged 45-49 living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

671 ÷ 2,456,827 = 0.00027 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,346 deaths from Unknown Causes among 39,033,337 people aged 45-49 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,346 ÷ 39,033,337 = 0.00006 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,456,827 X 0.00006 = 148 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

671 – 148 = 523

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

671 ÷ 148 = 3.8960

This reveals 523 lives lost and is 389.60% of what we expected (an increase of 290%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,979 ÷ 19,279,441 = 0.00015 (5-yr CDR)

2,456,827(2023 pop) X 0.00015 = 380 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

671 – 380 = 291 or 291 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

671 ÷ 380 = 1.6601 or an increase of 66%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

21,736,268 X 0.00006 = 1,306 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3650 – 1,306 = 2,344 or 2,344 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,650 ÷ 1,306 = 2.3954 or an increase of 140%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.