2023 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 90+ | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 90+ in Canada

1. 2,904 of 69,187 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.20% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 25% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,318 of 71,424 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 586 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2023.
6. 2,237 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2023.
7. 2,896 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2023)
8. 15,832 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 9 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 25% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 2,904 of 355,978 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

2,904 ÷ 355,978 = 0.00816 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,169 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,790,604 elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,169 ÷ 2,790,604 = 0.00651 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

355,978 X 0.00651 = 2,318 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,904 – 2,318 = 586

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,904 ÷ 2,318 = 1.2510

This reveals 586 lives lost and is 125.10% of what we expected (an increase of 25%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,633 ÷ 2,507,193 = 0.00743 (5-yr CDR)

355,978(2023 pop) X 0.00743 = 2,646 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,904 – 2,646 = 258 or 258 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,904 ÷ 2,646 = 1.0962 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,863,171 X 0.00651 = 18,641 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21537 – 18,641 = 2,896 or 2,896 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21,537 ÷ 18,641 = 1.1536 or an increase of 15%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 90+ living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.