2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 70-74 | Newfoundland, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Newfoundland

1. 468 of 468 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 577 of 577 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 109 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 922 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 468 of 16,963 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland died from All Causes.

468 ÷ 16,963 = 0.02759 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,523 deaths from All Causes among 133,060 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,523 ÷ 133,060 = 0.03399 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

16,963 X 0.03399 = 577 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

468 – 577 = -109

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

468 ÷ 577 = 0.8114

This reveals 109 lives saved and is 81.14% of what we expected (a decrease of 19%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,634 ÷ 101,403 = 0.02598 (5-yr CDR)

16,963(2022 pop) X 0.02598 = 441 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

468 – 441 = 27 or 27 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

468 ÷ 441 = 1.0617 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

118,366 X 0.03399 = 4,024 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3102 – 4,024 = -922 or 922 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,102 ÷ 4,024 = 0.7707 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.