2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 75-79 | Newfoundland, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Newfoundland

1. 457 of 457 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 33% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 678 of 678 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 221 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,151 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 33% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 457 of 11,778 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Newfoundland died from All Causes.

457 ÷ 11,778 = 0.03880 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,389 deaths from All Causes among 93,642 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Newfoundland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,389 ÷ 93,642 = 0.05755 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

11,778 X 0.05755 = 678 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

457 – 678 = -221

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

457 ÷ 678 = 0.6741

This reveals 221 lives saved and is 67.41% of what we expected (a decrease of 33%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,690 ÷ 62,901 = 0.04277 (5-yr CDR)

11,778(2022 pop) X 0.04277 = 504 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

457 – 504 = -47 or 47 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

457 ÷ 504 = 0.9071 or a decrease of 9%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

74,679 X 0.05755 = 4,298 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3147 – 4,298 = -1,151 or 1,151 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,147 ÷ 4,298 = 0.7321 or a decrease of 27%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Newfoundland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.